Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal amount to wager on a bet to maximize long-term growth while minimizing the risk of ruin. It works by calculating the fraction of your bankroll to bet based on the perceived edge and odds of a particular outcome. This method ensures that you never overextend your bankroll while still taking advantage of favorable opportunities.

In the context of sports betting, the Kelly Criterion starts with assessing the probabilities of each possible outcome for a game (e.g., home win, draw, or away win). To calculate these probabilities accurately, we use the Poisson distribution, which is a statistical method often applied in sports analytics to model the likelihood of specific events, such as goals scored in a match.

By combining the Poisson distribution for probability estimation with the Kelly Criterion for bankroll management, this method provides a statistically grounded and disciplined approach to betting. It not only helps in identifying valuable bets but also ensures sustainability in the long run.

Begin by entering your total bankroll in the field below, followed by your chosen risk percentage. For beginners, we recommend starting with 25%, which reduces the calculated bet size to one-quarter of the original amount, further minimizing risk. The table will then calculate the optimal wager for each potential game result. If you see a 0%, it indicates that Kelly Criterion suggests avoiding that particular bet.